The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has released its Monthly NR Statistical Report for February 2026, detailing a period of significant market activity influenced by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic changes and shifting supply-demand dynamics within the global natural rubber sector.
As per the report, global natural rubber production for 2026 is forecast to reach 15.324 million tonnes, a 2.2 percent increase from the 14.996 million tonnes recorded in 2025. February output alone is projected at 994,000 tonnes, marking a 3.4 percent year-on-year rise due to favourable weather and higher rubber prices. Despite this overall growth, production trends vary among member nations. While Thailand is expected to remain the top producer, Indonesia and Vietnam face short-term constraints from structural and agronomic issues. Meanwhile, Malaysia is advancing efforts to restore abandoned plantations, with the Rubber Production Incentive activated in Sarawak and Sabah and the Malaysian Rubber Board targeting the rehabilitation of 4,137 hectares of idle land in 2026.

Physical and futures markets saw notable price increases across major grades in February. In Kuala Lumpur, SMR-20 averaged USD 2.01 per kilogramme, a 5.13 percent monthly gain, while STR-20 in Bangkok rose 5.12 percent to USD 2.11 per kilogramme. Sheet rubber grades also strengthened, with RSS-3 increasing 7.84 percent to USD 2.35 per kilogramme and RSS-4 in Kottayam surging 10.38 percent to USD 2.34 per kilogramme. Centrifuged latex in Kuala Lumpur closed the month at USD 1.61 per kilogramme. Futures mirrored this firming trend, as the Shanghai Futures Exchange May 2026 contract averaged roughly 16,508 CNY (approximately USD 2,388) per tonne and the SGX contract averaged USD 1.92 per kilogramme, supported by strong demand and tightening supply expectations ahead of the seasonal low-yield period from February to May.
Crude oil volatility added further complexity, with Brent averaging USD 70.89 per barrel in February – up 6.43 percent from January – before spiking to approximately USD 104 per barrel in early March following military actions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for nearly 20 percent of global oil supply. This has introduced a risk premium with implications for synthetic rubber competitiveness and natural rubber demand. Currency shifts also play a role, as the Malaysian Ringgit appreciated modestly to 3.89 MYR per USD and the Thai Baht strengthened to around 31.08 THB per USD by late February, affecting trade competitiveness. Looking ahead, rising automotive production, especially of new energy vehicles in China, India and Southeast Asia, is expected to sustain demand and support prices. However, risks persist from US-China trade tensions, Middle East geopolitical instability, weather uncertainties during the low-yield season and currency fluctuations tied to US monetary policy, all of which could disrupt supply chains and export revenues.
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