India’s tyre industry is bracing for a tough fiscal year, weighed down by sluggish demand, volatile raw material prices and muted export growth. Revenue is forecast to expand just 7-8 percent – supported by modest price hikes and a marginal rise in volumes – marking a second straight year of single-digit growth. However, operating margins are set to contract sharply as natural rubber prices remain elevated despite recent moderation. In a wide-ranging discussion, Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at CRISIL Ratings, unpacks the factors shaping the sector, from price pressures and replacement demand to global headwinds and evolving trade dynamics.

How would you characterise the current fiscal year for the Indian tyre industry, considering its challenges and opportunities?

With volume expected to grow just by about 3-4 percent due to sluggish demand, overall revenue growth will remain in single digit for the second straight year, this fiscal. On the other hand, high raw material prices, especially of natural rubber, rose sharply over the past 12 months and have only recently begun to moderate. To a moderate extent, tyre manufacturers are increasing tyre prices in the replacement market to offset the impact of higher input prices, albeit operating profitability will still be impacted this fiscal.

The report mentions 7-8 percent revenue growth this fiscal year, supported by a 3-4 percent increase in realisations and volume. What specific factors could push growth beyond this forecast, and what risks might undercut it?

While realisation growth due to price hikes being undertaken by tyre manufacturers is a certain given sharp increase in natural rubber prices, higher than projected volume growth could take the growth higher than expected. With about 2/3rd of the domestic demand

coming from replacement segment, and it being the primary volume driver, any significant decline in that demand can impact the growth forecast other way.

Given that replacement demand is the primary volume driver, how do you assess the longevity of this demand surge in the context of evolving consumer preferences and vehicle usage patterns?

The replacement demand is expected to sustain over the medium term driven by the strong automotive sales achieved in previous fiscals.

With operating profitability projected to drop 300 basis points, what contingency measures are tyre makers considering beyond gradual price increases to mitigate this impact?

The price of natural rubber, which constitutes about half of the raw materials, continued to surge sharply in the first half of fiscal 2025. However, ability to pass on this increase is limited due to modest volume growth. Small price hikes and continued focus at improving operating efficiencies on an ongoing basis is another way to offset the impact to some extent.

Natural rubber prices have been highly volatile, reaching record highs and then falling to around INR 170 per kg. What is your outlook for natural rubber prices in the near to medium term, and what factors will likely influence their movement?

The sharp rise in natural rubber prices is due to a global shortage caused by inclement weather in major producing countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which account for about half of the global production. Going forward, increase in supply with improving hectarage and slowdown in global economies is likely to drive correction in international rubber prices. In the last couple of months, some moderation in natural rubber prices has happened.

China has a surplus in crude oil-derived raw materials, including carbon black and other chemicals. Do you anticipate this surplus impacting global prices for these commodities, and how might Indian tyre makers benefit or face challenges as a result?

Share of natural rubber in tyre manufacturing is 47 percent, while carbon black accounts for ~20-22 percent. Should carbon black prices remain under control, it will benefit domestic tyre manufacturers.

Export growth is expected to remain muted at 2-3 percent. How does the current geopolitical climate, including sanctions or trade restrictions, further complicate Indian tyre makers’ access to markets in North America and Europe?

Export growth is expected to remain sluggish due to challenging business conditions in US and Europe. However, certain segments like off-the-road tyres are beginning to see better prospects as stocks with dealers are moderating. This could help players with presence in the off-the road- tyre segment.

Exports to key markets such as North America and Europe are under pressure due to economic challenges and unviable operating costs, leading to plant shutdowns in regions like US, Europe and Israel. Is the Indian tyre industry at risk of facing similar challenges, or does it have structural advantages that mitigate these risks?

Indian players are better placed compared to some of the western peers due to comparatively lower cost of operations, though operating profitability has come under pressure this fiscal because of higher imported rubber prices. Also, Indian players have flexibility to supply in small batch sizes unlike Chinese peers, and hence this also works to their advantage, more prominently in higher margin segments such as off-the road tyres.

Have tyre makers explored new international markets or alternative trade routes to counter supply chain disruptions and higher freight costs?

Not really; to circumvent the difficult environment around the Suez Canal, vessels are going around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-3 weeks and additional freight cost on exports. Some of the costs are being shared with the customers.

The report references Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations. How significant is the financial and operational burden of compliance for tyre makers, and what progress has been made in addressing this?

Adoption of EPR regulations is not expected to have a very sizeable impact on profitability, though it will lead to investments in strengthening processes and in technology.

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Metso has announced the appointment of Jonathan Allen as its new Chief Growth Officer, effective 1 May 2026. In this role, he will oversee the Business Growth function, which includes Strategy, Mergers & Acquisitions, AI, Data & Analytics, Sustainability, Safety, Quality, Communications & Public Affairs, Marketing & Brand and Corporate Procurement. Allen will join the Metso Leadership Team and report directly to President and CEO Sami Takaluoma. He replaces Claudia Genin, who is set to leave the company by August 2026, as previously disclosed.

A longstanding member of the Metso team since 2005, Allen most recently served as Senior Vice President for the Grinding, Bulk, Pyro & Smelting business line and was also part of the Services business area leadership group. His career at Metso spans over two decades, during which he has held various leadership positions in both France and United States.

Allen holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from Penn State University, US. His extensive operational and international experience within the company positions him well to lead Metso’s growth and strategic initiatives going forward.

Sami Takaluoma, President and CEO, Metso, said, “Jonathan’s extensive experience at Metso, a deep understanding of our industry and his proven leadership in business strategy execution and growth make him exceptionally well suited to lead our Business Growth function. I am confident that, under his guidance, we will continue to advance our ‘We go beyond.’ strategy and further strengthen Metso’s growth and success.”

Allen said, “Over the past two decades, I have witnessed our company’s remarkable progress, and I look forward to collaborating across our global teams to drive our strategy further and ensure that we continue to deliver exceptional value for our customers and stakeholders. Together, we will build on our strong foundation, accelerate our transformation and support Metso’s vision to be the industry leader.”

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PRINX CHENGSHAN has achieved another major milestone in its direct sales and original equipment business with the selection of its PRINX AQUILA PRO tyre as original equipment fitment for the NEVO Q05, a global high-volume model from Chang'an Qiyuan.  The pairing made a notable impact at the 47th Bangkok International Motor Show, where the vehicle’s appearance drew widespread international attention.

The PRINX brand, representing the mid-to-high-end segment under PRINX CHENGSHAN, centres its approach on using tangible technology to enhance mobility. The AQUILA PRO tyres delivered for Chang'an Qiyuan combine efficient braking enabled by advanced structural engineering with EU Class A rolling resistance and responsive handling. This performance profile directly supports Chang'an Qiyuan’s commitment to a superior all-around user experience, reinforcing a partnership aimed at building a refined mobility ecosystem.

The Bangkok exhibition also highlighted the growing market presence of PRINX across multiple platforms. Both the MG5 PRO Thai Version and the MG S5 EV Thai Version run on the AQUILA PRO tyres, gaining traction in Thailand through accessible pricing and strong technical capability. Separately, the Ora 5, an all-electric A-segment SUV, debuted globally in Bangkok equipped across its lineup with the PRINX XNEX SPORT EV tyres, underscoring its blend of design, intelligence and global readiness.

With a rapidly evolving global network encompassing two major R&D centres, four technology centres and three smart manufacturing bases, PRINX CHENGSHAN has steadily advanced its product innovation and direct sales channels. The company’s forward-looking strategy centres on a products plus services model, integrating quality manufacturing with full lifecycle support to drive green and intelligent mobility. Through close collaboration with partners, it seeks to foster sustainable industry development and bring the strengths of China’s intelligent manufacturing to a broader global audience.

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India’s tyre sector is moving into a steadier phase after cyclical tailwinds from GST-led formalisation and rural demand. Srikumar Krishnamurthy, Senior Vice-President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings at ICRA, says replacement demand will continue to anchor growth in FY2027 even as original-equipment volumes soften. Premiumisation is lifting tyre makers’ realisations, though input volatility and competition cap pricing power. Export prospects are improving with new trade agreements, but regulatory risks and cost pressures persist as companies balance capex with discipline.

ICRA expects the Indian automotive sector’s wholesale growth to normalise in FY2027. How does this moderation in vehicle volumes translate into tyre demand across OEM and replacement channels?

The normalisation of wholesale volume growth in FY2027 follows a period of elevated growth in the second half of FY2026, which was driven largely by post-GST reform-led factors and favourable rural demand sentiments. The moderation in wholesale volume growth will consequently translate to a similar growth in OE segment. The aftermarket segment, however, will follow the inherent replacement cycle of different sub-segments and other fundamental factors.

Replacement demand currently anchors tyre industry growth. What level of growth do you expect in this segment going forward?

The replacement segment saw a robust growth in the last 4–5 months supported by the post effects of GST rate cuts and healthy rural demand following good monsoons and crop output. The current sentiments are favourable, with factors around economic activities, freight rate movement and farm output reflecting optimistic picture. The segment is likely to outperform the OE segment in FY2027 supported by inherent factors like replacement cycle, safety awareness and regulatory forces.

Premiumisation is evident in vehicles and tyres alike. How is the shift towards larger rim sizes, radialisation and higher-value products shaping revenue growth versus volume growth in FY2026–27?

A change in product mix has been observed in recent times. Rising preference for utility vehicles, premium bikes and electric vehicles have resulted in changes to the average selling price (ASP) of tyre makers. While these elongates the product replacement cycle over time, higher share of sales of large rim sizes and high-performance tyres results in premium pricing and value growth. That said, pricing pressure because of competition and movement in input prices restricts the premium to an extent, in certain segments.

What impact do you expect from the evolving trade agreements between India and United States, along with the proposed India-EU free trade deal, on tariffs for tyres produced and exported from India?

US and Germany are the top-two destinations for Indian tyre exports. Overall, tyre export volumes grew by around 10 percent in FY2025 and around eight percent in H1 FY2026. The recent signing of India-UK and India-EU deals is a positive as Indian tyres are increasingly getting exported to these regions in recent period, reflecting better acceptance. While the developments on India-US tariff-related aspects are a positive, stability in tariff reforms will be critical towards better visibility of exports.

With exporters pivoting towards Europe, Africa and Latin America, what competitive or regulatory barriers might Indian tyre makers face in these markets over the next 12–18 months?

The prospects of Indian exporters remain vulnerable to the regulatory actions and competitive forces. The US tariff-related developments have made tyre makers in

South-East Asia and China more competitive (as compared to India), although the changes in tariff rates is a positive development for Indian exporters. While a depreciating rupee was beneficial, the recent capping of RodTEP benefits is a negative impacting the competitiveness of Indian tyre makers.

Natural rubber prices have remained elevated and volatile. How do you expect raw-material cost trends to evolve in FY2027, and what does this imply for tyre company margins and pricing power?

Rubber prices largely track the demand-supply factors. The prices have largely been volatile in recent years and were affected by a relatively subdued consumption globally. While the supply will remain influenced by weather and other related factors, the global tyre demand is likely to be relatively better, thus keeping the prices firmer in the coming year.

Beyond rubber, inputs such as carbon black and crude-linked derivatives are cyclical as well. Are tyre manufacturers adequately positioned to manage input volatility through sourcing strategies or pass-through mechanisms?

To protect the margins, tyre makers have resorted to better production planning, maintaining optimal inventory and altering the sourcing strategies. That said, the earnings profile of tyre makers remains exposed to any sharp volatilities in input prices, especially replacements.

Industry capex has remained steady, focused on radial capacity and premium segments. Do you foresee a new investment cycle in FY2027–28, or will companies prioritise balance-sheet discipline amid demand normalisation?

The industry’s capex spends are estimated at 8–10 percent of revenues with sizeable investments towards expansions in passenger vehicles and trucks and bus tyres, along with continued focus on debottlenecking, maintenance and R&D activities.

Looking beyond demand and costs, what are the most significant structural challenges facing the Indian tyre sector over the next three to five years – technology shifts, sustainability mandates or global competition?

Multiple trends are emerging in the auto industry, like vehicle premiumisation, changing powertrain mix, fluctuation in adoption of EVs across different product segments etc. In this backdrop, and coupled with global geo-political uncertainties and climate changes, tyre makers face challenges around business strategies. Strengthening technological capabilities, investments in premium performance tyres, enhanced usage of AI for operations, streamlining supply chain activities and diversification are the likely key focus areas for Indian tyre makers.

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Kumho Tyre UK has strengthened its leadership team with the appointment of Luke Emery as Sales Director for South East England, a move that coincides with the company’s expanding product range and reports of growing demand across the region. Bringing 22 years of deep-rooted experience in the tyre sector, Emery’s background spans both motorsport and passenger car applications, positioning him well to drive commercial performance in this key territory.

His appointment forms part of Kumho’s ongoing investment in its UK operations, reflecting a continued commitment to reinforcing the domestic team as demand rises for an increasingly diverse product portfolio. In this new role, Emery will work alongside the existing UK management and sales teams to deliver dedicated support to customers throughout the South East, ensuring the business remains responsive to evolving market needs.

Richard Lyons, Managing Director, Kumho Tyre UK, said, “We are delighted to welcome Luke to the Kumho team, adding to the enrichment of our team that we have seen over the past few months. The UK market has shown excellent acceptance of our latest products and Luke’s appointment reflects our commitment to building a talented, future-focused team that can support our customers and continue driving the growth of the Kumho brand across the UK.”

Emery said, “Having worked at Kumho in the past, I’m delighted to return at such an exciting time for the brand. Kumho has built a strong reputation for delivering high-quality tyres that offer excellent value and performance, and the market response to the new products has been extremely positive.”

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