India’s tyre industry is bracing for a tough fiscal year, weighed down by sluggish demand, volatile raw material prices and muted export growth. Revenue is forecast to expand just 7-8 percent – supported by modest price hikes and a marginal rise in volumes – marking a second straight year of single-digit growth. However, operating margins are set to contract sharply as natural rubber prices remain elevated despite recent moderation. In a wide-ranging discussion, Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at CRISIL Ratings, unpacks the factors shaping the sector, from price pressures and replacement demand to global headwinds and evolving trade dynamics.

How would you characterise the current fiscal year for the Indian tyre industry, considering its challenges and opportunities?

With volume expected to grow just by about 3-4 percent due to sluggish demand, overall revenue growth will remain in single digit for the second straight year, this fiscal. On the other hand, high raw material prices, especially of natural rubber, rose sharply over the past 12 months and have only recently begun to moderate. To a moderate extent, tyre manufacturers are increasing tyre prices in the replacement market to offset the impact of higher input prices, albeit operating profitability will still be impacted this fiscal.

The report mentions 7-8 percent revenue growth this fiscal year, supported by a 3-4 percent increase in realisations and volume. What specific factors could push growth beyond this forecast, and what risks might undercut it?

While realisation growth due to price hikes being undertaken by tyre manufacturers is a certain given sharp increase in natural rubber prices, higher than projected volume growth could take the growth higher than expected. With about 2/3rd of the domestic demand

coming from replacement segment, and it being the primary volume driver, any significant decline in that demand can impact the growth forecast other way.

Given that replacement demand is the primary volume driver, how do you assess the longevity of this demand surge in the context of evolving consumer preferences and vehicle usage patterns?

The replacement demand is expected to sustain over the medium term driven by the strong automotive sales achieved in previous fiscals.

With operating profitability projected to drop 300 basis points, what contingency measures are tyre makers considering beyond gradual price increases to mitigate this impact?

The price of natural rubber, which constitutes about half of the raw materials, continued to surge sharply in the first half of fiscal 2025. However, ability to pass on this increase is limited due to modest volume growth. Small price hikes and continued focus at improving operating efficiencies on an ongoing basis is another way to offset the impact to some extent.

Natural rubber prices have been highly volatile, reaching record highs and then falling to around INR 170 per kg. What is your outlook for natural rubber prices in the near to medium term, and what factors will likely influence their movement?

The sharp rise in natural rubber prices is due to a global shortage caused by inclement weather in major producing countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which account for about half of the global production. Going forward, increase in supply with improving hectarage and slowdown in global economies is likely to drive correction in international rubber prices. In the last couple of months, some moderation in natural rubber prices has happened.

China has a surplus in crude oil-derived raw materials, including carbon black and other chemicals. Do you anticipate this surplus impacting global prices for these commodities, and how might Indian tyre makers benefit or face challenges as a result?

Share of natural rubber in tyre manufacturing is 47 percent, while carbon black accounts for ~20-22 percent. Should carbon black prices remain under control, it will benefit domestic tyre manufacturers.

Export growth is expected to remain muted at 2-3 percent. How does the current geopolitical climate, including sanctions or trade restrictions, further complicate Indian tyre makers’ access to markets in North America and Europe?

Export growth is expected to remain sluggish due to challenging business conditions in US and Europe. However, certain segments like off-the-road tyres are beginning to see better prospects as stocks with dealers are moderating. This could help players with presence in the off-the road- tyre segment.

Exports to key markets such as North America and Europe are under pressure due to economic challenges and unviable operating costs, leading to plant shutdowns in regions like US, Europe and Israel. Is the Indian tyre industry at risk of facing similar challenges, or does it have structural advantages that mitigate these risks?

Indian players are better placed compared to some of the western peers due to comparatively lower cost of operations, though operating profitability has come under pressure this fiscal because of higher imported rubber prices. Also, Indian players have flexibility to supply in small batch sizes unlike Chinese peers, and hence this also works to their advantage, more prominently in higher margin segments such as off-the road tyres.

Have tyre makers explored new international markets or alternative trade routes to counter supply chain disruptions and higher freight costs?

Not really; to circumvent the difficult environment around the Suez Canal, vessels are going around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-3 weeks and additional freight cost on exports. Some of the costs are being shared with the customers.

The report references Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations. How significant is the financial and operational burden of compliance for tyre makers, and what progress has been made in addressing this?

Adoption of EPR regulations is not expected to have a very sizeable impact on profitability, though it will lead to investments in strengthening processes and in technology.

Titan International, a major global manufacturer of wheels and tyres for off-highway equipment, has secured expanded production rights for the Goodyear brand across multiple segments while renewing its existing farm tyre licensing agreement.

The deal extends Titan’s Goodyear brand manufacturing rights to include light construction, industrial, all-terrain vehicle (ATV), lawn and garden and golf tyre categories, significantly broadening the company's market reach.

The Illinois-based firm will continue to produce agricultural tyres under the Goodyear Farm Tyres brand, maintaining its presence in a sector where it manufactures products ranging from small implement tyres to the massive Goodyear Optitrac LSW1400/30R46, which features the company's proprietary Low Sidewall Technology.

"We are excited to expand our rights into new segments, as this positions us to serve our customers better and seize emerging market opportunities. Our research and product development teams are already working on new tyre designs incorporating innovative tyre technologies for the lawn and garden segment," said Paul Reitz, President & CEO of Titan International, Inc. "In addition to our newly acquired rights, we are reaffirming our commitment to the farm tyres segment, a vital part of our business."

Industry analysts note the expansion comes as demand for specialised off-highway tyres remains robust across construction, agriculture and recreational sectors despite broader economic headwinds.

Strategic growth initiative

The licensing expansion aligns with Titan's strategy to offer comprehensive wheel and tyre solutions across forestry, powersports, outdoor power equipment, agricultural, earthmoving, and light construction markets throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa and Oceania.

The company did not disclose the financial terms of the licensing agreement with Goodyear.

Titan International has manufactured Goodyear-branded farm tyres since 2005, when it acquired Goodyear's North American farm tyre business. It has gradually expanded these rights to other regions, including Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Russia, and Australia.

Targets International Expansion With Robust Fy25 Performance

CEAT Ltd, the RPG Group’s flagship tyre company, reported a capital outlay of INR 9–10 billion  for FY2025–26, keeping with its capacity expansion strategy and global integration. This follows a strong FY25 performance of record revenues and double-digit growth across segments despite headwinds in overseas markets.

The business ended FY25 with consolidated revenue of INR 132.18 billion, up 10.6 percent year on year, and Q4 revenue at INR34.21 billion, up 14.3 percent compared to the corresponding quarter previous year. The standalone full-year EBITDA was INR 15 billion, and the Q4 operating margins improved by more than 100 basis points sequentially at 11.5 percent.

"We incurred capex of INR 9.46 billion in FY25 and expect a similar investment of INR 9–1.0 billion in FY26," said Kumar Subbiah, Chief Financial Officer of CEAT. “Our focus will remain on expanding capacities, particularly at the Ambarnath and Chennai facilities, and funding the integration of the recently acquired Camso compact construction business.”

In FY25, CEAT depreciated assets amounting to INR11.40 billion. Much of its FY26 capex will also fund equipment modernisation and normal maintenance at its Sri Lankan operations under Camso, putting a cost estimate of INR1-1.25 billion a year over the next two years.

The Camso acquisition, which is effective from Q2 FY26, is likely to significantly enhance CEAT's global presence. "Integration work has started in full acceleration," said Arnab Banerjee, Managing Director and CEO. “Initial focus will be on customer retention and business continuity, with consolidation expected to double Camso’s current capacity utilisation over the medium term.”

Despite international uncertainties, CEAT renewed its medium-term global growth forecast. Exports are expected to form 25–26 percent of the revenue post-Camso integration. Turbulence still exists in Latin America and North America due to tariff policies and exchange rate weakness. CEAT, however, has reported consistent performance in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

CEAT also indicated a likely raw material cost stabilisation in Q1 FY26, potentially softening by Q2, to support its margin growth initiatives. The gross margin was 37.5 percent in Q4 FY25, and the target was above 40 percent in the near term.

Banerjee signaled ongoing activity in electrification, premiumisation, and digitalisation. "With our technology outlays and new product introductions, we are hopeful of sustaining 20–25 percent market share in electric vehicle segments," he asserted.

The debt levels of the company are under control. The gross debt as of 31 March 2025 was INR 19.28 billion with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.3x and debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44x. Subbiah added that CEAT's strong cash generation will allow it to finance both organic and inorganic growth without materially diluting leverage metrics.

Black Swan Graphene Inc. (Black Swan) has appointed Jobin George as Technical Sales Manager for the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region with immediate effect. This significant move, which supports Black Swan's worldwide commercial team as it promotes adoption of its graphene-enhanced products, follows Dan Roadcap’s appointment as Head of Technical Sales and Business Development.

George has an MBA from ICFAI University in India, a Post Graduate Diploma from the Central Institute of Petrochemical Engineering and Technology in India and a Bachelor of Science in Chemistry from Mahatma Gandhi University, India. He brings with him more than 20 years of global expertise in project management, business development and technical sales. George has had positions at Sands International Plastics and Sojitz Corporation in the United Arab Emirates, as well as Aquapak Polymers and H-Pack Global Ltd.

Simon Marcotte, President and Chief Executive Officer, Black Swan Graphene, said, “The addition of Jobin to our commercial team marks another important milestone in our global expansion strategy. His international experience, particularly in the EMEA region, and his proven ability to translate technical capability into commercial success make him an ideal fit as we continue scaling our graphene business.”

George said, “Black Swan is positioned at the forefront of advanced materials innovation. The opportunity to contribute to the adoption of such a transformative technology across the EMEA region is tremendously exciting. I look forward to engaging with our existing customers and partners, along with exploring opportunities for new clients as well, to showcase the performance and value of Black Swan’s graphene solutions.”

The Tire Recycling Foundation (TRF), a joint initiative led by the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) and the Tire Industry Association (TIA), has appointed Stephanie Mull as its Executive Director.

Mull will spearhead the organisation's initiatives to promote innovation and invest in the circular tyre economy, expand the market for end-of-life tyres and support studies to fill in the gaps in the sustainability and tyre recycling supply chain in her new role at TRF. Mull brings a wealth of experience in the sustainability field and a broad understanding of fleet management and decarbonisation, including converting fleets to electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In her role as PepsiCo's Sustainability Senior Manager, she oversaw major electrification projects, obtained grant money and spearheaded efforts to lower Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions throughout Pepsi and Frito-Lay's North American fleets. Mull oversaw the local government's efforts to upgrade municipal vehicles to greener technology and volunteered to help the Red Cross electrify its fleet.

Anne Forristall Luke, TRF Board President, said, “Stephanie Mull brings the passion, in-depth expertise and history of excellence that will drive TRF and its partners to achieve critical tyre recycling and reclamation milestones. We are thrilled to have her join the Foundation as we advance tyre sustainability while tackling the challenges and opportunities ahead.”

Mull said, “I’m honoured to join the Tire Recycling Foundation and support its sustainability mission to achieve 100 percent end-of-life tyre circularity. TRF is a vital nexus of expertise and leadership, and I look forward to working with all stakeholders in developing tyre recycling solutions that pave the way for a more sustainable future.” 

The Tire Recycling Foundation is dedicated to achieving 100 percent circularity for end-of-life tires by advancing innovation, building partnerships and supporting scalable recycling and reclamation solutions. Consisting of 15 global industry leaders with expertise in the manufacturing, recycling and transportation industries, TRF’s Board primarily focuses on the acceleration and adoption of emerging end-of-life tyre market technologies like rubber-modified asphalt (RMA).