First a dissection of the tyre market in four different sectors – one that was severely affected and three that have been the mainstay of resilience.

Cowrie Shells of Trade

Initially, Cowrie shells were used as currency for trading right after the barter age. Cowrie shells were/ are still used in astrology in many parts of Africa to predict the future. Four cowrie shells held in the hand, the astrologer would then shake the shells while clenching the fist and throw them to the ground. Depending on how many shells turned upside, the astrologer would then tell the future. In my case, three have turned upside and one facing down – an ominous sign.

(Cowrie Shell number 1) The Motorcycle  Market

Also known as ‘bodabodas’, motorcycles are divided into the mid-premium, premium and commuter motorcycles. The rise in numbers in pre-pandemic times and presently is because of their ability to move efficiently in urban and rural areas, especially where the road conditions are poor. 

 Between 2011 and 2019, the number of motorcycles grew 233 percent from 500,000 to 1.7 Million. The average annual demand for motorcycles is 200,000 units – a demand that is fuelled by a relatively affluent rural population with a drive for personal mobility (Source: Kenya Automotive Sector Profile – 60 years Anniversary edition). Motorcycle tyres sales have not lagged behind in the regard, with most of the imports coming from India and China. Often these tyres are not recyclable.

(Cowrie Shell number 2) Commercial Market Truck

The shift in rules and regulations surrounding travel has come with uncertainty and border closures that were aimed at stopping the spread of the disease. Closure of some truck tyre producing plants and ensuring that the overseas parent markets demands were met before exports meant that there was a shortage in this sector. The sector has been supported by the Light Commercial Vehicle tyres from the 7.00-16, 7.50R16, 9.5R17.5, 265/70R19.5 and, more recently, 255/70R22.5 (FI engines). These vehicles are not under the spotlight of weigh-bridge restrictions as compared to their bigger rig 22 and above wheeler cousins and hence have become a vehicle of choice of up-coming and existing transporters wanting to squeeze the payload shilling to a longer mile. Even in the absence of verifiable date or research papers, it is estimated that commercial driving has dropped by about 20 percent.

(Cowrie Shell number 3) Agricultural Tyres

The sector that continues on an upturn is one that continues to feed the millions of people every day. Even with a prediction of drought at the end of the year, tractors and farmers on the road continue to grind tyres to ensure that there are products from the farm to fork. The OEM/ replacement/aftermarket sectors are experiencing a rise in demand for efficient and productive agricultural machinery that is driving the agricultural tyre market. It is primarily the technological advancements and expanding population that are propelling the agricultural tyre market. Sameer Africa, the only agricultural tyre manufacturing concern in the country, closed its doors in 2019. While the overall scenario of the market is positive, the demand is hugely dependent on the economic turmoil in the region that invariably affects the farmers’ income and purchase of farm machinery. However, a downturn in farming equipment sales is expected to continue till 2022 as Covid-19 severely impacted the automotive industries.

Changing agricultural machinery design and increasing penetration into new unexplored terrain will require tyres that have stronger rubber compounds. Flotation, forestry, trailer and compound rubber tyres with steel flex wall are now trending in the local agricultural tyre market.

(Cowrie Shell number 4) Passenger and 4x4

Regarding the future impact of personal and business travel, Bill Gates recently noted that we can ask the question “Do I have to go there personally? ” and predicted 50 percent decline for the post Covid-19 world. In addition to that, walking, cycling and motorcycling have gained preference.

In addition to the specifics of the tyre market, various factors continue to plague the East African tyre industry, and they include:

•           Uncertainty that the virus will move into the winter months and the Delta variant. With less than 10 percent of the population now vaccinated in the East African region, it is difficult to say how the disease will pan out. What is certain is that the periods of confinement will continue deep into 2022 (an election year in Kenya).

•           At some point this year, freight costs rose by 300 percent. Tyre sellers had no option but to pass the cost to the consumer. Supply chain disruptions are here to stay mainly because Kenya will be having the general elections next year. Tanzania and Uganda have already had theirs. In such times, many investors hold back on the resources waiting for regime change and the chaos that follow a general election.

Rangoli of Possibilities

Many years ago, I woke up every day to beautiful drawings made on the ground in front of a neighbour’s doorstep. Drawn by a young Indian girl, I later came to learn their meaning. Using multi-colored, ochre, dried rice sand, flour, rocks and petals, beautiful drawings were made on the doorstep as a part of an everyday Hindu household practice – even more so, during the important Hindu ceremonies such as Diwali, Pongal and Tihar (I would urge the reader to view some of these drawings on Google). The Rangoli represents happiness, positivity and liveliness of a household (nation) intended to welcome health and happiness. It is for this reason that I intend to paint here that African Tyre Market Rangoli during this very trying Covid times mostly for therapeutic purposes. 

It is in these Rangolis of possibilities that I would like to offer my predictions and possible solutions:

Prediction no. 1

In East Africa, future urban mobility will not rely on individual car traffic regardless of the propulsion system. The pandemic will cause urban planners to re-think the transport framework policy. Policy makers will nurture the momentum gained to further transform the traffic landscape towards environmentally friendly towns and cities.

Prediction no. 2

In the midst of dwindling and scarce resources, the one that remains unlimited is ‘IDEAS’. E-commerce readiness will be vital in determining the survivability of a business during the Covid-19 pandemic. The level of readiness will determine their continuance and sustainability.

E-commerce readiness can be examined on the basis of Technological readiness / Organisational Readiness and Environmental Readiness. Challenges and constraints thrown our way, such as the Covid-19 proffers, only encourage a business to adopt e-commerce and take it to another level. (Ref. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business)

Suggestions on how to weather the storm

In order to strive, thrive and stay ahead of the pandemic curve, businesses in East Africa have to adopt different business strategies:

•           Tyre business owners and managers must consider going against the previous market stock trends such as Just in Time Management. Maximise coverage, over-order on fast moving items, plan way ahead, order early, sell what your competition can offer you and pro-actively communicate with customers about impending shortage (being upfront and honest)

•           Being constantly in touch with suppliers, strategically allocate stocks, buy out of the normal circles, train front-line staff on up-downsizing-cross sizing and tyre husbandry.

•           Invest in your people in training (preferably online) and keep moral high.

•           With pricing; work around keeping your cost low and don’t raise prices when you can’t supply. This puts you up against a customer.

 What the Cowrie shells on the ground say

I would like to pen-off with the words of Kenya’s finance cabinet secretary, Ukur Yatani Kanacho:

“Last year around this time, you would think that ours was a deserted city. Life is now back to normal, the vibrancy is back. We are quite optimistic. Kenyans have accepted and adopted to the new way of living and we are quite alive to the challenges posed by Covid-19”. (TT)

Eurogrip Tyres, the leading tyre manufacturer in India, showcased its premium two-wheeler tyres at the 17th edition of Feria 2 Ruedas (F2R) International Motorcycle exhibition held at Plaza Mayor, Medellin, Colombia. The dates of this high-profile business event in South America's two-wheeler sector are 15–18 May 2025.

For more than 17 years, the Feria de las 2 Ruedas (F2R) has been the leading motorcycle industry event in Latin America. The expo, which takes place every year in Medellín, Colombia, is a vibrant venue for commerce, innovation and growth in the motorcycling sector. Additionally, it gives aficionados the chance to investigate the most recent developments and trends in the industry. The company showcased its premium lineup at exhibit N24 in the Tented Pavillion, which included a range of sport touring, off-road and trail tyres. High-performance versions including the Roadhound, Protorq Extreme, Trailhound STR, Climber, Bee Connect, Terrabite DB+ and Badhshah LX were on display.

P Madhavan, Executive Vice-President – Marketing & Sales, TVS Srichakra Ltd, said, “Eurogrip is focused to deliver innovative products for the global markets. Latin America is a priority market for us, and F2R Expo is a promising platform to engage with our target audience. We are looking forward to interesting business opportunities arising from this expo. Such specialised industry tradeshows add exceptional value to our quest in becoming a leading global tyre brand delivering world class tyre technology.”

Denka Company Limited announced it would record an extraordinary loss of approximately 16.1 billion yen (£85.8 million) as an impairment on manufacturing facilities at its US subsidiary. It will indefinitely suspend chloroprene rubber production at the Louisiana plant.

The Japanese chemical manufacturer, which holds a 70 percent stake in Denka Performance Elastomer LLC (DPE), cited mounting operational challenges, including unexpectedly high costs for pollution control equipment and declining production volumes at the American facility.

“DPE has faced significant cost, production and other challenges at its facility in the United States,” the company said in a statement. “Rising costs are attributable to, among other factors, identification, design, purchase, installation, and operation of pollution control equipment to reduce chloroprene emissions that DPE did not anticipate being required when it acquired the facility from E.I. DuPont de Nemours and Company.”

The subsidiary was established in December 2014 and acquired the chloroprene rubber business from DuPont in November 2015. The Louisiana facility was intended to serve as a second manufacturing site in North America, complementing Denka’s Omi Plant in Itoigawa, Niigata, Japan.

However, according to the company statement, DPE has struggled with multiple operational issues, including “rising energy costs and a shortage of qualified staff necessary to operate new pollution control equipment and implement other emission reduction measures. “

Production volumes have declined partly due to “operational restrictions arising from the pollution reduction measures and unscheduled plant outages associated with supply chain disruptions and severe weather events,” Denka said.

The company noted that these challenges, combined with changes in the global economic environment for chloroprene rubber, have pressured profitability, making near-term improvement difficult.

Denka confirmed that DPE employs 250 people as of December 2024 and will not restart its chloroprene rubber manufacturing facilities following a regular maintenance shutdown. Instead, “all options for the business, including a potential sale of the business or its assets, will be considered,” the statement said.

The company emphasised that “no decision regarding a permanent closure of the facility has been made at this time.”

Customers will continue to be supplied from current inventories and production at the company’s Omi Plant in Japan.

DPE is 70 percent owned by Denka USA LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Denka Company Limited, and 30 percent by Diana Elastomers, Inc., a subsidiary of Mitsui & Co., Ltd.

Yokohama Rubber reported a 56.9 percent year-on-year decline in profit attributable to owners for the first quarter of 2025, despite posting a 9.0 percent increase in sales revenue.

The Japanese tyre maker recorded a profit of 8.53 billion yen for the three months ended 31 March, down from 19.8 billion yen in the same period last year. Business profit fell 3.2 percent to 24.07 billion yen, while sales revenue rose to 275.12 billion yen.

The company maintained its full-year forecast, projecting an 11.4 percent increase in sales revenue to 1.22 trillion yen and an 8.8 percent rise in profit to 81.5 billion yen for the fiscal year ending 31 December 2025.

Yokohama Rubber attributed the profit decline to one-time costs related to its February acquisition of Goodyear’s off-the-road (OTR) tyre business, which it purchased for approximately 143 billion yen.

“Profit from existing businesses was strong,” the company said in its earnings statement. “In addition to increased sales volume for the company’s consumer tyres, mainly in overseas markets, and continued expansion of sales of high-value-added ADVAN, GEOLANDAR, and Winter tyres as well as high-inch tyres, profit was boosted by the MB segment’s MIX improvements and structural reforms.”

The tyre segment, which accounts for 91percent of the group’s consolidated sales revenue, saw a 10.4 percent increase in sales to 250.32 billion yen. Original equipment tyre sales were higher year-on-year, driven by “strong sales in Japan of vehicle models equipped with YOKOHAMA tyres and expansion of shipments for Chinese automakers’ new energy vehicles,” the company said.

Replacement tyre sales also increased, supported by higher sales of summer and winter tyres in Japan, increased sales of high-inch tyres in Europe, and stepped-up sales efforts in Asia.

The MB (Multiple Businesses) segment, which represents 8.4 percent of total sales, experienced a 3.2 percent revenue decline to 23.02 billion yen. This was attributed to lower demand from construction machinery makers in Japan and automakers in North America.

The company described an “upbeat” business sentiment in Japan for the quarter, noting that “a steady recovery in inbound demand and increasing orders for construction and logistics projects compensated for weak consumption by domestic households curbing spending in response to rising prices of consumer goods.”

Overseas, the company observed rising inflation concerns weighing on consumer spending in the United States, while in Europe, “manufacturing industries are rebounding and corporate business sentiment is improving.” In China, personal consumption was boosted by the Spring Festival holiday, but high US tariffs “reduced China’s exports and created uncertainty about the future that is weakening industrial activity.”

Swedish speciality chemicals firm Nynas reported solid financial results for 2024, posting an Adjusted EBITDA of 1,333 million Swedish kronor, marginally higher than the 1,316 million kronor recorded in 2023.

The company, which specialises in naphthenic speciality oils and bitumen products, attributed its performance to operational efficiency and commercial success in its niche markets.

“We are delighted with the progress made during 2024, evidencing our right-sized cost base and a more targeted commercial and manufacturing footprint. We have redefined our strategic direction, positioning Nynas as a speciality chemicals company, enabling the energy transition and setting our course for 2035,” Nynas CEO Eric Gosse said in a statement.

The firm highlighted strong cash generation from operations, which it said would support planned investments and longer-term growth initiatives. Nynas also mentioned the ongoing transformation of its Harburg site with plans to monetise the asset eventually.

All three of the company’s production facilities maintained high operational reliability between 95 percent and 99 percent. The Nynäshamn refinery achieved a notable milestone: in May 2024, it set a new monthly production record for naphthenic speciality oils at 42,000 tonnes.

Strategic pivot towards sustainability

Nynas outlined a strategic shift focused on higher-margin speciality materials with sustainable characteristics. The company aims to strengthen its position in European markets through innovation and sustainability initiatives.

“Nynas is uniquely positioned to contribute to the energy transition. Our strategy reflects our purpose to advance a more sustainable society, and our product development pipeline is fully aligned with this goal," Gosse added.

In 2024, the company received an EcoVadis Gold rating, placing it in the top 5 percent of globally rated businesses for sustainability performance.

With consecutive years of strong financial performance, Nynas indicated it continues to monitor debt capital markets to optimise its capital structure “at the appropriate time potentially”.

The Swedish chemicals producer noted that, having ceased operations in the United States in 2022, it remains largely insulated from recent global trade tensions surrounding US import tariffs. The company imports only minimal feedstock from America, shielding it from potential cross-border trade disputes.