The state of Kerala in southern India still accounts for over 70% of the tappable area and 75% of the national rubber production in India. Given the agro-climatic advantage, quality of human resources cultivating rubber and productivity of rubber, Kerala is expected to retain its prime position in Natural Rubber production in the near future. Though the area under rubber cultivation is increasing in the non- traditional regions, which has got cost advantages over the traditional region, it has inherent climatic disadvantages. A cost-benefit analysis by RRII revealed higher BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) for Kerala than in the non-traditional regions due to its higher productivity which offsets the higher cost in the state to some extent. So, maintaining the production sector in Kerala in good health is key to ensuring sufficient domestic production of rubber in the coming decades as envisaged in the National Rubber Policy (NRP) of India.

The NRP envisages sourcing 70% of India’s requirements of natural rubber through domestic production. This also gains importance as India has once again started thinking in the direction of self-sufficiency through its Atma Nirbhar Bharat initiative and the current domestic production of Natural Rubber accounts for just over 50% of the national requirement.

But the days of the smallholding sector of Kerala, which has scripted the success of rubber production in India from the 1980s onwards, seems to be over and running out of steam. The sector is in deep crisis as it is confronted with issues like uneconomic size of holdings, low price of natural rubber and scarcity of tappers. This paper analyses the persisting issue of scarcity of rubber tappers in the sector.

Widening demand-supply gap

The first census of rubber tappers conducted by Rubber Board in 2013 enumerated 77,207 tappers in the smallholdings sector in Kerala. The estimated tappers requirement to tap the existing tappable area of 4,56,000 ha in Kerala in the smallholdings sector under different systems of tapping is presented in Table 1.

The census revealed that 13.7 per cent (10,577) tappers were under S/2 d1, 81.2 per cent (62,692) were under S/2 d2, 4.7 per cent (3629) under S/2 d3 and 0.4% (309) under various other low frequency tapping (LFT) systems in the smallholdings sector. By assuming a stand of 400 trees per tapping block, these tappers could tap only 1,49,011 ha regularly. This shows there exists huge demand-supply gap of tappers in the sector, resulting in large number of holdings either left untapped or tapped irregularly.  

Inherent structural bottlenecks

In the general agricultural sector of Kerala, helpers of masons in the rural construction sector are considered to be the most immediate group with whom agricultural labourers identify or that these segments of rural labour markets interact during short-term fluctuations in the supply and demand. Similarly, supply of tappers at a given point of time is determined to a great extent by the wage income of tappers and the wage rates prevailing in the sectors closely interacted by the tappers in the smallholdings sector. Lower wage income of tappers in relation to wage of agricultural labour and semi-skilled workers was reported as the main reason for aversion of younger generation to tapping job. Trends in the wage rate of tappers in the smallholdings sector of Kerala are presented in Table 2.

 

 

 

 

Based on the structural breaks observed in the wage rate of rubber tappers since 1980, the entire period was sub-divided into five. During the entire time period, except for the period 2014 to 17, the wage rate of tappers has been increasing in real terms. The highest growth rate in nominal and real wages was observed during 2005 to 2013. A plateau in the growth of nominal wage rate was observed after 2013 and hence the real wage rate showed a decline (Fig 1). 

Though wage rate of tappers has been showing growth in nominal and real terms till 2013, the sector has been facing severe scarcity of tappers. This shows that increasing wage rate has not succeeded in attracting sufficient tappers into the sector. Hence, wage share, which is a measure of distribution of income between the capital and labour, was computed to know the distribution of income between the farmers and tappers in the sector.  Trends in wage share of rubber tappers in nominal and real terms are presented in Table 3.

 

The wage share of tappers has increased in the last one decade both in nominal and real terms. Though wage rate of tappers has declined in real terms in the last few years under analysis (Fig 1), wage share has been increasing in the smallholdings sector. Increasing wage share in the sector indicated better distribution of income among the capital and labour. 

  Nevertheless, the wage rate of tappers, both in nominal and real terms, has been increasing (except for the past a few years) and the sector exhibited an increasing wage share in real terms, the sector failed to attract sufficient tappers, leading to severe scarcity. This warrants for deeper analysis to understand the issue. Hence, a comparison of estimated wage incomes of rubber tappers with agricultural labourers and helpers of masons in the construction sector was done and presented in Table 4.

 

 

The estimated annual wage income of rubber tappers in the smallholdings sector of Kerala was found to be 44 per cent and 59 per cent less than their counterparts in the general agriculture and construction sectors respectively. This makes the sector less attractive for the potential new entrants, which is ultimately reflected in tappers supply. Due to division and fragmentation of rubber holdings, the average size of holdings has come down and number of trees available for tapping was only 286 trees per tapping day under single grower dependence system and 75 per cent of tappers in the sector were engaged in the single grower dependence system.

In piece rate-based wage payment system, number of trees tapped per day and number of tapping days per year determines the annual wage income of tappers. Thus, in the present scenario, the smallholdings are incapable of giving more tapping task to the tappers to enhance their wage income. Hence, prevalence of single grower dependence, small size of holdings, lesser number of trees available for tapping per tapping day and the piece rate-based wage payment are the bottlenecks in enhancing wage income of tappers. But, in their effort to retain experienced tappers in the milieu of tappers scarcity, the farmers were forced to follow the labour intensive high frequency tapping systems with more tapping days, though it has implications on net farm income.

Even though the tapping wage rate and wage share has been increasing in real terms, the tappers are expected to demand a hike in the wage rate as the wage income earned by them is substantially lower than their counterparts in other rural employment sectors. In the present scenario, to make wage income of tappers on par with that of agricultural labourers and helpers in the construction sector, a hike of 79 per cent and 143 per cent respectively is required in tapping wage rate (Table 5).

 

 

But, an increase of this magnitude in the wage rate is not feasible as further hike in the wage rate would seriously affect sustainability of rubber cultivation as with the present cost of cultivation and price of rubber, the farm income is declining in real terms (Fig. 2) and wage share is increasing (Table 3).

 

Limited options

Since labour is becoming costlier and farm income has been declining in real terms due to uncertain prices, the options available with smallholdings are either to shift to other profitable crops or adopt cost saving technologies including mechanization as tapping accounts for more than 80 per cent of the labour requirement in mature rubber plantations. Generally, mechanisation is done as a labour saving process that occurs due to the increasing scarcity of labour most often reflected in a rising wage rate. But, since the scope for mechanisation in rubber tapping is limited and adoption of cost saving low frequency tapping (LFT) is constrained by the small size of holdings, farmers may either prefer to keep their plantations untapped or shift to other profitable crops. At present, as per Rubber Board data, around 30 per cent of the mature plantations are left untapped in the smallholdings. This will have serious implications on the rubber smallholdings sector as majority of the farmers are small and marginal with average size of holdings of less than 0.5 ha. A study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, found that the net operating income from an acre of rubber cultivation is only Rs. 16,732 in Kottayam and Rs. 19,681 in Thiruvananthapuram, which is not adequate to induce the rubber growers to continue with rubber cultivation. It was also observed that the recorded net income of those with holding size below 2 ha and depending only on rubber cultivation for their livelihood will be below the poverty line.

Thus, declining profitability is expected to dissuade small growers in Kerala from rubber cultivation and encourage them to explore alternatives. This will have far reaching consequences in the sector as the share of part time farmers are already high and a recent survey by the Economics Division, RRII revealed that for 69 per cent of farmers in Central Kerala, income from rubber accounted for less than 50 per cent of the total household income.     

Collapse of the smallholder’s rubber sector in Kerala will have serious impact on natural rubber production in India as the state contributes nearly 78 per cent of total natural rubber produced in the country and the smallholdings sector accounts for nearly 90 per cent of area and production in Kerala.   

Collectivism to circumvent the structural bottlenecks

Earlier studies have suggested methods like crop sharing and production incentives with annual compensatory allowances as alternatives to overcome the hurdles inflicted by the piece rate-based wage payment system and low tapping task in enhancing wage income of tappers to attract more tappers into the sector. But, large scale adoptions of these propositions were not reported in Kerala. Crop sharing is not sustainable in the long run as the return to capital is marginal and hence would deter large scale adoption by the small and marginal farmers. Production incentives to match the wage income of tappers to that of labourers in the general agricultural sector and helpers in the construction sector (Table 4 and 5) would render rubber cultivation uneconomical due to high cost of production in the smallholdings, which has long lost its economies of scale.

Prevalence of single grower dependence, small size of holdings and lesser number of trees available for tapping per tapping day being the critical bottlenecks in enhancing wage income of tappers and attract new tappers into the sector, any new system adopted should be capable of negotiating these bottlenecks efficiently to ensure tappers flow into the sector. Division and fragmentation of holdings aggravates these bottlenecks and render rubber cultivation uneconomical. Thus, as a measure to overcome these bottlenecks, collectivism/co-operative farming is suggested as an alternative. Collectivism would help to circumvent these structural bottlenecks of the smallholdings viz., small size of holdings, lesser number of trees available for tapping and prevalence of single grower dependence of tappers, as in collective farming the factors of production are pooled and the farm is managed as a single unit on co-operative basis. Hence under collectivism tapping task and wage income of tappers could be enhanced considerably. Willing farmers in the smallholdings sector can be bought under different farmer’s co-operatives and the farm can be managed as a single unit by professional managers under the supervision of the elected members.

Collective management of small rubber holdings under co-operative/collective farming would facilitate large scale adoption of cost saving technologies like LFT, as the holding size barrier for its adoption could be overcome by collectivism. Since the farm management decisions are implemented uniformly across the units managed under collectivism, it will have the advantage of economies of scale. Though LFT is recommended as a cost saving strategy in mature plantations to make rubber cultivation profitable, its large-scale adoption is constrained by the small size of holdings in the smallholdings sector.

The first census of rubber tappers by Rubber Board in 2013 recorded its adoption as below 5 per cent in Kerala. By following the LFT (S/2 d7) under collective farming, the tapping task and employment of tappers could be enhanced further (Table 6) and the wage income of tappers could be equated with their counterparts in the rural labour market. Table 6 reveals that with the present tapping wage rate itself, the wage income of tappers could be equated with the income earned by their counterparts in the rural economy under collectivism. In addition to higher wage income, the tappers attached to farmer’s co-operatives would have better access to welfare schemes extended for the tappers by the Rubber Board as the first tappers census observed poor percolation of the welfare schemes among the tappers, since the tappers in the smallholdings were unorganized.   

 

 The proposed collective farming is different from the activities performed by the Rubber Producers Societies (RPS). The present day RPSs are basically involved in technology dissemination, provide different services like subsidized input distribution, collective processing and marketing of NR. A few RPSs and Rubber Board promoted trading companies are organizing tappers under tappers banks to tap holdings which are either untapped or abandoned due to absentee farmers, non-availability of tappers and declining profitability due to price crash. Though tappers attached to the tappers bank under the present system get higher remuneration than their counterparts in the smallholdings (Table 7), this will not ameliorate tappers scarcity and encourage large scale adoption of LFT in the sector, as the bottlenecks discussed earlier remains.

In the proposed collective farming, farmer’s co-operatives are expected to play a major and direct role in rubber production by pooling the factors of production (plantations). The authority to make farm decisions would be vested with the co-operatives rather than individual farmers and the profit shall be shared among the members.

Conclusion

Though wage rate and wage share has been increasing in real terms in the small holdings sector, the wage income of tappers were substantially lower than the wage income of labourers in the general agricultural sector and helpers in the construction sector with whom tappers in the smallholdings relate in the rural labour market. Due to presence of structural bottlenecks as such as smaller size of holdings, lesser number of tress available for tapping, piece rate wage payment system and prevalence of single grower dependence, the sector was incapacitated to augment wage income of the tappers to equate it with that of labourers in other rural sectors. To attract more tappers into the sector by increasing the wage income of tappers by circumventing the structural bottlenecks, collective farming under farmer’s co-operatives following the principles of collectivism is proposed. Collective management of plantations will not only help the tappers to get regular employment, sufficient tapping task and remunerative wage income, it would also have the added advantage of bring down the cost of production of NR and increasing profitability of NR cultivation as it would also facilitate large scale adoption of labour and cost saving technologies for rubber production.

 

The global natural rubber (NR) market experienced fluctuating prices in August 2025 as supply constraints coincided with signs of improving demand, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) said in its latest Monthly NR Statistical Report.

The association noted that seasonal factors supported stronger consumption, particularly in China, where declining port inventories signalled healthier demand. However, heavy rainfall and labour shortages in key producing regions curtailed tapping activities, tightening supply conditions.

“Natural rubber prices experienced a fluctuating trend due to several factors, including constrained supply and improving demand,” ANRPC said. “Seasonal factors boosted consumption, particularly in China, where inventory reductions at major ports indicated improved demand. However, rainfall and labour shortages in producing regions limited tapping activities, tightening supply.”

According to updated data from member countries, global natural rubber production is projected to increase by 0.5 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, while demand is expected to grow by 1.3 percent over the same period.

The association said market sentiment had turned “increasingly optimistic” with stronger purchasing interest, driven by the traditional peak season for natural rubber, especially from the all-steel tyre and heavy-duty truck segments.

The ANRPC encouraged subscribers and stakeholders seeking more in-depth insights to refer to the full report or contact the ANRPC Secretariat for subscription details.

India has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Halo-Isobutene-Isoprene Rubber (HIIR) from China, Singapore and the United States, following a complaint from Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Limited, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) said in a notification.

The domestic producer alleged that the three countries were exporting the rubber to India at unfairly low prices, causing injury to the local industry. The company has sought the imposition of anti-dumping duties on the product, which is used in tyre inner liners, hoses, seals, tank linings, conveyor belts and protective clothing.

The DGTR said there was prima facie evidence that imports had risen “significantly” and were being sold below normal value, resulting in price depression and affecting the domestic manufacturer’s capacity utilisation and profitability. The authority noted that the dumping “is causing material injury to the domestic industry”.

The investigation will cover the period from July 2024 to June 2025, with an examination of injury trends dating back to April 2021.

HIIR, also known as halobutyl rubber, is classified under the broader synthetic rubber tariff category. Reliance Sibur Elastomers is currently the only producer of the material within India.

If the investigation confirms dumping and injury, the DGTR may recommend the imposition of duties to offset the impact and “remove the injury to the domestic industry”. Interested parties have 30 days to submit data and make their representations to the authority.

The global carbon black market is projected to grow from USD 27.88 billion in 2024 to USD 44.77 billion by 2034, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.85 percent between 2025 and 2034, according to a new report by Towards Chemical and Materials, a research arm of Precedence Research.

The study estimates that the global market volume will rise from around 15.15 million tonnes in 2025 to 21.83 million tonnes by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 4.14 percent, driven primarily by increasing demand for tyres, automotive components and high-performance plastics.

Carbon black – a fine black powder made through the incomplete combustion of hydrocarbons – is a critical material used to reinforce rubber in tyre production and enhance strength, durability and UV resistance in plastics, coatings, and batteries.

Asia Pacific accounted for about 58 percent of global market share in 2024 and is expected to remain the largest and fastest-growing regional market, supported by expanding tyre and rubber manufacturing bases in China, India and Southeast Asia. The region’s carbon black market was valued at USD 16.95 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 26 billion by 2034.

“The Asia Pacific region continues to lead both in production and consumption of carbon black, owing to its strong automotive, tyre and plastics industries,” the report noted, adding that China remains the world’s largest producer and consumer.

The furnace black segment dominated the market in 2024, accounting for about 60 percent of global industry share, due to its superior reinforcing properties in tyres and versatility in plastics and coatings. Meanwhile, the tyres and rubber products segment held a 55 percent share, reflecting the material’s indispensable role in the automotive sector.

Performance applications such as batteries, conductive polymers, and specialty coatings are emerging as key growth drivers. Demand for specialty carbon black and conductive grades is rising with the proliferation of electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and electronics manufacturing.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is also shaping the carbon black industry, with automation and predictive analytics enhancing process efficiency, product consistency, and sustainability, the report said. AI-driven systems are enabling real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance in production plants, reducing waste and energy consumption.

Sustainability remains a key trend, with manufacturers investing in greener technologies, renewable feedstocks and recovered carbon black (rCB) from recycled tyres to meet circular economy goals. “Turning end-of-life tyres and rubber waste into recycled carbon black is opening new sustainable pathways for producers,” the study noted.

Among key players profiled in the report are Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd., Continental Carbon, Jiangsu C-Chem Co., Ltd., Himadri Speciality Chemical Ltd., Sid Richardson Carbon & Energy Company, Cancarb Limited, Philips Carbon Black Ltd., OCI Company Ltd., Columbian Chemicals Co. (Birla Carbon), Aditya Birla Group, and Raven SR, LLC.

Recent industry developments include PCBL Chemical Ltd.’s establishment of a wholly owned US subsidiary in Delaware in July 2025 to enhance supply chain localisation and strengthen its North American footprint, as well as the West Bengal government’s efforts to attract foreign investment in its carbon black industry to support the electric vehicle, tyre, and battery markets.

The report also forecasts rapid growth in North America, fuelled by clean manufacturing practices, sustainable process adoption and expansion in high-performance plastics and battery applications. Europe, meanwhile, is benefiting from stricter environmental regulations and the EU Green Deal, which are promoting eco-friendly and specialty grades.

The global carbon black market is expected to maintain steady long-term growth as manufacturers diversify into advanced applications and invest in sustainable production technologies to meet evolving industrial and environmental demands.

Kraton Corporation, a leading global producer of speciality polymers and high-value biobased products derived from pine chemicals, has revealed a new strategic initiative for its Berre, France facility. The plan involves streamlining its polymer operations to concentrate exclusively on manufacturing USBC products, which will result in the cessation of HSBC production at that site.

This move is designed to bolster Kraton's long-term competitiveness by optimising its manufacturing footprint in reaction to a global overcapacity for HSBC. The company has formally started an information and consultation process with the local Works Councils, with a final decision expected following this mandatory period. The company has reaffirmed its commitment to supplying HSBC from its broader global network and to leveraging its worldwide presence to continue adapting to market demands.

Prakash Kolluri, President, Kraton Polymers, said, “Our aim with this plan is to strengthen Kraton’s long-term competitive position by optimising our manufacturing footprint in response to changing market dynamics associated with global overcapacity of HSBC production capability. With this step, we are preparing Kraton for a sustainable future by securing Kraton’s position as the leading global HSBC producer. Kraton is fully committed to supporting our customers through this transition with supply of HSBC products produced within our unmatched global manufacturing network. We recognise the impact of these actions, and are committed to a safe, respectful and supportive transition. The health, safety and well-being of the employees remain our top priorities.”